Ukraine's Strike Campaign - The Moscow Raid & Trends in the Long-Range War

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From relatively humble beginnings, both Russia and Ukraine have massively scaled up their use of one-way attack drones over time and in 2026 we've seen the Ukrainians reach further and more frequently.

So today I want to talk about the evolution of Ukraine's long-range war and the recent strike on the Moscow Region.

Because nothing quite says successful demilitarisation quite like your opponent launching massed drone strikes on your capital four years into a war.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Reading and Sourcing (Partial):

Visually confirmed losses per Oryx

UA USF claims per USF dashboard

TWZ - New Russian ALCM
https://www.twz.com/air/new-russian-air-launched-cruise-missile-appears-in-ukraine

Putin draws red line (2024)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrlr87e5elo

RUSI - Disrupting Russian Air Defence Production
https://static.rusi.org/rp-disrupting-russian-air-defence-production.pdf

Reporting on S-71K
https://www.twz.com/air/new-russian-air-launched-cruise-missile-appears-in-ukraine

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-russian-cruise-missile-full-of-western-parts-ukrainian-intel-2026-4

Atlantic Council on Ukraine Drone War (and one cover image)
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/from-moscow-to-crimea-ukraine-is-winning-the-drone-war-against-russia/

Reporting on Eased UK sanctions
https://en.usm.media/due-to-the-crisis-in-the-middle-east-britain-will-allow-the-import-of-fuel-from-rosneft/

Mapping of air defence positions around Lake Valdai per
https://x.com/kromark/status/1812952368084054108?lang=en

David Hambling - Russian “Missile Drought” Bites...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2026/05/07/russian-missile-drought-bites-as-putin-pulls-back-to-defend-moscow/

UA Defence Minister of test of Ukrainian glide bomb
https://x.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/2056296732690935835

Russia plans to make 120,000 glide bombs (2025)
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-plans-make-up-120000-glide-bombs-this-year-ukrainian-intelligence-says-2025-11-14/

French Hammer deliveries to Ukraine
https://united24media.com/latest-news/france-to-supply-1200-jamming-resistant-aasm-hammer-bombs-for-ukraines-soviet-era-jets-8107

Reporting on recent Ukrainian Strike Activity

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-refining-standstill-central-russia-after-ukrainian-drone-strikes-sources-say-2026-05-20/

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/20/drone-strikes-force-central-russian-refineries-to-halt-or-cut-output-reuters-a92805

https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraines-record-deep-strikes-are-knocking-out-russias-industrial-heartland-18660

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/18/ukraine-war-briefing-the-drones-that-bombarded-moscow-region

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukrainian-long-range-drones-are-turning-russias-size-into-a-weakness/

https://kyivindependent.com/fire-at-novorossiysk-fuel-terminal-amid-ukrainian-drone-attack-russian-authorities-say/

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/04/8023882/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ye480kxpmo

Reporting on Russian revenues post Iran war
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/13/russias-oil-export-revenue-saw-continued-growth-in-april-iea-says-a92745

TASS reporting on S-300 ground attack role (2017)
https://tass.com/defense/938610

Documents on Russian Ukraine peace negotiations 2022 (including arms limitations tables)
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf

Source of 9M33 image
https://global.espreso.tv/military-news-russian-propagandists-unwittingly-confirm-critical-gaps-in-air-defense

Caveats u0026 Comments:

All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or any other decision, evaluation, or similar.

Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.

Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Intro
00:01:39 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:37 — LRS in Ukrainian Strategy
00:09:25 — the Moscow Strike
00:19:21 — Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD
00:31:14 — Offensive Capabilities
00:50:12 — Energy Strikes
00:57:54 — a High-level View
00:59:54 — Channel Update